LED rises 3D preheating tablet market to set off a prologue

Market dynamics

Market size growth is not as expected, manufacturers seek new profit growth points

2010 is not a quiet year. After the global economy has undergone a recovery adjustment in the past year, all walks of life have begun new strategic planning. In the Chinese market, thanks to government policies, the consumer electronics market has grown to varying degrees in the past year, especially flat-panel TVs have once again been at the forefront of all products. According to the data of GfK China's national LCD TV retail sales, the overall size of the LCD TV market in the first half of 2010 was 15.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55.2% in the first half of 2009, while sales increased by 42% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the overall color TV market was 18.3 million units, and the proportion of LCD TVs in the entire color TV market has reached 82%.

Although the market size in the first half of the year has risen by more than 50%, this figure still has a certain gap with the increase of more than 70% that is generally expected in the industry at the beginning of the year. The reason is mainly related to the overall economic environment. The global economic recovery has slowed down, especially in the European market. After this, the domestic stock market has been fluctuating and falling for the first half of the year, which is a big blow to the retail investors who are the main consumers of the market; With the introduction of the new housing policy in the country, the real estate industry, which has been overheated, has finally slowed down. However, the subsequent sharp decline in the volume of real estate transactions in the second quarter and the withdrawal of investors' wintering activities have had a certain impact on the LCD TV market.

Due to the market's lack of expectations, coupled with the fierce competition in the early stage, the profit margin of LCD was greatly reduced, resulting in even a loss of operation. Therefore, finding new profit points and improving the market's stalemate has become the most important issue at the moment. At present, the answers given by the public are pointing to led. In the past six months, LED TV has also become the biggest hot spot in the color TV market. Since its debut in 2009, in just one year, LED has quickly occupied more than 10% of the entire LCD market, and this number is still rapidly expanding. According to GfK China's 100-city LCD TV monthly monitoring report, LED sales in May 2009 were only 2,376 units. By October 2009, this figure had grown to 16,955 units, just in 2010. In May, LED TV sales reached 114,719 units, and the year-on-year growth rate exceeded 4,700%!

We know that the reason for the rapid growth of LCD TVs between 2009 and 2010 is due to the support of government consumption incentives such as home appliances to the countryside and old-for-new, as well as the intensified price war in the LCD market. However, in retrospect, whether it is a plasma TV or a LCD TV, the manufacturer has spent a long time cultivating the market when it was first introduced. Taking LCD TV as an example, it has been going through nearly five years from the listing to the hot sale. Now that LED TVs have grown so fast, they have grown so fast?

1. The price competition of LCD TVs is becoming increasingly fierce, and manufacturers are looking for new profit growth points.

We all know that in the past three years, the competition in the LCD TV market has been very fierce, and the price has fallen much faster than other products. According to the data of GfK China's national LCD TV retail sales, the average unit price of LCD TVs has dropped from 8,255 yuan to 4,389 yuan in the past two years, a drop of more than 46%, especially the 32-inch main size segment, the average unit price. It fell to 3,200 yuan, the domestic brand's 32-inch average unit price is less than 3,000 yuan, the price has fallen to the cost line (according to the latest market LCD panel price estimates). All manufacturers are facing huge cost pressures, and seeking new profit growth points has become a topic for everyone. LED is undoubtedly the best solution at present, with new technology as a selling point, re-promoting the sales and vitality of the high-end market, and increasing the average unit price and vital profit margin.

2. Consumers are pursuing new technologies and become another booster for LED TV growth.

Technological innovation in the consumer electronics market is always the biggest temptation for consumers. Due to the rapid development of science and technology in recent years, the application of new technologies in the field of civil electronic products is getting faster and faster, the update cycle of products is shortening, and the trend of the consumer electronics market is becoming closer to the field of fast-moving consumer goods. The advantage quickly became the darling of consumers, and there is no longer a long warm-up period. Especially in the fast-growing market like China, new products and new technologies are more likely to cater to people's feelings of being old and tired. Just as the technologies such as Full HD and 100Hz can be quickly accepted, although the domestic TV signal can't even meet the basic application conditions of these new technologies, the market has recognized them first and has become the consumer to buy LCD. The standard features of the TV.

It is in this context that LED has become the biggest bright spot in the market in the first half of this year. In just one year, sales accounted for more than 20% of the entire LCD market. Of course, due to the rapid price reduction of LEDs, the existing LCD products have also had a certain impact, and LEDs as high-end products, the number can not make up for the vacancies of low-end LCD products. In addition, some manufacturers have invested a lot of resources in the promotion and research and development of LEDs, and further reduced the promotion of original LCD products. These factors have all inhibited the growth of the LCD market in the first half of the year to some extent.

Market characteristics

Golden Week starts early; World Cup drives off-season sales

Although the growth rate of the LCD TV market in the first half of the year has not reached expectations, its several characteristics are worthy of our attention.

In the past May, let us have a new understanding of the peak season sales. According to GfK China's 50-city LCD TV weekly monitoring report, sales for the three weeks before and after Labor Day (16th, 17th and 19th week) have increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, and even far greater than labor. The growth rate of the festival (week 18). From the distribution of sales volume, the sum of sales in the three weeks before and after Labor Day has exceeded the sales volume of the festival week. In the past, due to the promotion factor of the peak season, consumption is very concentrated, especially after the holiday, the sales volume will quickly fall to the bottom. Just like last year's Labor Day, the sum of three weeks before and after is even less than half of the week of the festival. Looking back at the previous National Day and Labor Day season, this is not the case. This year's Labor Day market has completely broken this tradition.

The reason is actually related to the changes in the market in the first half of the year we analyzed. This year, May 1st was the first large-scale listing of LED TVs. All manufacturers tried to take the lead in this outpost. They spared no effort to promote the situation ahead of time. Several large chain retailers such as Gome and Suning also contributed. Earlier, more resources than ever before, to launch a publicity campaign. It turns out that the media offensive is effective. Customers have stepped into the mall two weeks in advance, and a large number of new store opening activities and old store reloading celebrations, plus the holiday promotion activities that May Day itself has, so many consumers can safely pay home before the holiday. Enjoy living with a flat-screen TV.

On the other hand, we can see that the year-on-year growth rate of the 50-city LCD market in the 20th week to the 23rd week is still considerable, thanks to the World Cup opened in June. This year's first full-HD live World Cup game in China greatly mobilized the enthusiasm of the fans, and the rumors of 3D signal broadcast promoted the sales of 3D LCD TV during Labor Day: 3D models of LED TVs sold more than 3,000 units during the holiday season. For the products that are absolutely high-end debut, it is a very good result. Although the domestic 3D signal did not start as expected, many fans still bought flat-panel TVs in order to enjoy a high-definition World Cup. As mentioned above, domestic consumers are always looking for new things. enthusiasm. The World Cup became the best catalyst for the domestic LCD TV market in early May and early June. The HD World Cup was the biggest selling point, and it injected vitality into the off-season market after the holiday.

In the high-speed market, who can take the lead, who can take the initiative, whether it is the early start of May Day, or the off-season hotspot brought by the World Cup and the rise of 3D TV, all indicate the fierce competition between manufacturers - from Simple price wars to timing, technology and hot spots to grasp the competition. Some insiders have said that the characteristics of today's consumer electronics market are dominated by manufacturers as the market, and the hotspots created by humans drive the needs of consumers. The World Cup is a small season in the off-season created by manufacturers and retailers.

Future prospects

LEDs are rising rapidly; 3D is starting to warm up.

It is foreseeable that the core of the market in the second half of the year will still be LED TV. With the initial completion of the domestic manufacturer's LED front line layout, the two peak seasons in the fourth quarter will become an important part of the popularization of LED TV. At that time, major manufacturers will inevitably have a larger range of actions, and strive for the opportunities in the field of LED TV. On the other hand, the trend of the national economy in the third quarter will also become an important direction. If the overall economic environment can be further eased in the third quarter, it will be an important positive news for the LCD TV market in the second half of the year, and the fourth quarter. It will be the best touchstone to test this trend, and large-screen LCD and mid-range LED will become the core of this round of competition.

With the World Cup and the movie Avatar rising 3D TV has become a new hot spot in the market. For a time, major manufacturers have waded into 3D, as if they had already premeditated to release their own 3D products. 3D will surely drive a new wave of product upgrades, which is also a new profit growth point brewed by manufacturers after LED. Both domestic and foreign manufacturers are well aware that 3D will become a new focus after the popularity of LED TVs. Although 3D TV is currently affected by factors such as lack of content supply, technology is not fully mature, and prices are high, it cannot be widely promoted and become the mainstream of the market. However, with the craze of 3D movies coming this summer, the concept of 3D will gradually deepen. People's minds, the attention of 3D TV will gradually heat up, and it has become a topic of discussion. Here is a quote from Bob Perry, vice president of Panasonic: TV technology has gone through the evolution from black and white to color, from analog to digital to high definition, and 3D will be "the ultimate border of TV technology."

Strategy suggestion

In the first-line market, due to the unsatisfactory situation in the first half of the year, the competition in the second half of the year will be more intense. In particular, the performance in the fourth quarter is the most important part for each manufacturer to complete this year's indicators. All manufacturers should pay more attention to the complete product line and price system, especially in the LED products need to invest more attention and resources to ensure that in the upcoming LED rise war, take the lead, under the pressure of strong competitors Hold your position and play a beautiful defensive counterattack.

On the other hand, the use of the national two major home appliance retail promotion policies should be increased to reduce the pressure on the cost of enterprises from price wars. In particular, foreign-funded enterprises should make full use of the policy of home appliances to the countryside, actively expand the market in the third and fourth grades, reduce the bottleneck of the scale of the primary and secondary markets, and limit the development of the scale of enterprises, and further develop the rural market, and expand the influence and coverage of the brand. .

For domestic manufacturers, the operation of brand image is a more important issue. Nowadays, the technology integration of products is getting higher and higher, and consumers' demands for brand value are also heating up. Although there is no shortage of blind letters to big brands, it is more due to the demand for product reliability. Establishing a high-end corporate brand image is crucial for winning the favor of more consumers in the LED-based market in the future. From the share of high-end LED products, it is obvious that foreign manufacturers have the advantage in this piece. For domestic manufacturers that have been occupying market share at low prices, they must strengthen the trust of high-end product lines and brands themselves in the consumer group. degree. Especially before the advent of the comprehensive promotion of 3D TV, it is very important to establish a corresponding public relations work and establish a technical image as a 3D pioneer in the eyes of consumers.

2010 is an important turning point for the LCD TV market. The history of LCD replacement of CRT TV is about to repeat itself. The protagonist who kicked off the change this time will be LED TV. We will pay close attention to the trends and market dynamics of major manufacturers, and provide the most timely and accurate industry analysis and review from the perspective of third parties, and witness this history.

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