The macro impact of this year's home appliance market before the high and low

In the first half of this year, the overall steady performance of the national economy has ensured the continuous development of the overall scale of home appliances.

According to Zhong Yikang, from January to May 2013, the total scale of retail sales in China's home appliance market reached 593.6 billion yuan, an increase of 20.1% over the same period of last year. Among them, the retail volume and retail sales of color TVs increased by 42.7% and 38.2% year-on-year respectively; the retail sales and retail sales of air-conditioners increased by 29.8% and 34.5% respectively; the retail sales and retail sales of refrigerators increased by 16.1% and 22.2% respectively year-on-year; The retail sales and retail sales of washing machines increased by 11.8% and 20.0% year-on-year respectively; the retail sales and retail sales of water heaters increased by 14.4% and 24.7% year-on-year respectively; the retail sales and retail sales of mobile phones increased by 32.8% and 25.2% respectively year-on-year.

Observers analyzed that from the month-to-month trend of China's home appliance market, from April to June, the growth rate of industrial added value fell from 9.3% all the way to 8.9%, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment also dropped from 20.1% to 19.3%. Shows the overall economic weakness. Affected by this, it is expected that the home appliance industry will enter the down channel in the second half of the year.

Regarding the economic situation that is not optimistic, whether the Chinese government will introduce a moderate stimulus policy to boost the market transition adjustment in the near future, we can only wait and see the development of the market. Therefore, observers said that the home appliance market held a more cautious attitude in the second half of 2013 and it is expected that the total sales will reach 1,188 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year.

According to forecasts, in the second half of 2013, the decline in sales of the home appliance industry is expected to be between 10% and 20%, and the decline rate of some categories will reach 40%. The industry is in a downturn.

Home Appliance Production and Sales Sharply Slow Down

In June, the PMI value almost approached the 50% threshold. Behind the sharp slowdown in China's manufacturing industry, China's manufacturing industry, represented by automobiles and home appliances, is under pressure from orders and stocks. The Chinese home appliance industry has entered. Downstream channel.

Compared with the decline in production, the home appliance market demand also began to show weakness in June. After the end of the energy-saving and subsidies-for-subsidy stimulus, the Chinese home appliance market also fell into an unexplainable adjustment period in June. The data of Zhongyi Kang Zhoudu shows that retail sales of color TV sets, refrigerators and washing machines in the 25th week (June 17th - June 23rd) are 37.8%, 29.8%, and 43.7% respectively. Only air-conditioning is subject to high season Factors affect the week's gains close to 100%.

Within one month after the end of the energy-saving policy, the household appliance market has experienced significant shocks and the market is in a period of hesitation and delay. This is due to the game between the self-help of the company's transformation and the wait-and-see attitude of consumers.

Some studies believe that the recent liquidity in the inter-bank market is tight. Many banks have experienced a “money shortage” in the past two weeks, which may further deteriorate the financing environment of small and medium home appliance manufacturing companies. In the second half of this year, under the influence of factors such as weakening macroeconomic environment, withdrawal of stimulus policies, and lack of overseas demand, both domestic and overseas sales of home appliances are weak.

The survival of SMEs is worrying

After the end of the energy-saving subsidy policy, the overcapacity of the manufacturing industry brought about by the “policy-oriented city” once again attracted attention. How to resolve the structural adjustment and transformation of the small and medium home appliance enterprises has become a severe test for the entire home appliance industry in the second half of the year.

The data shows that nearly 90% of the total number of home appliance enterprises are small and medium-sized enterprises, whose output value and sales account for about 30%-40% of the industry's total, and the number of employed people accounts for about 40% of the total number of the industry. The small household appliances industry is basically based on small and medium enterprises. Enterprises are the main players, so it can be said that SMEs are an important part of the home appliance industry, and they are important forces that can promote industry transformation and upgrading, relieve pressure on employment in society, and boost confidence in the industry.

From January to May 2013, the retail data also showed that in the color TV, refrigerator, washing machine, air conditioner and other industries, the top 10 companies in the industry accounted for 88.72%, 83.81%, 83.41%, 85.07% of the retail market share, respectively. The degree of concentration continues to increase. In contrast, the SMEs with a market share of less than 1% will be even harder to survive than those with an industry ranking of 20.

When small and medium-sized enterprises live, the Chinese home appliance industry is alive. Observers believe that in the context of the downtrend of the industry, SMEs should take the initiative to participate in market competition, strengthen their management and technology upgrades, enhance their strength, and strive to compete with large companies to differentiate themselves, and strive to gain advantages in market segments. In addition, our government authorities should also seriously consider the current pressure of survival of small and medium-sized home appliance companies, and provide support in solving financing difficulties, reducing tax burdens, and absorbing labor and employment, so as to avoid the closure of small and medium-sized household electrical appliance companies due to operating difficulties. Turn the situation.

The future is pinned on urbanization

In the long run, the new urbanization policy, the massive delivery of affordable housing, and the upgrading of third- and fourth-tier markets will be the real driving force for the next recovery in the home appliance market.

The advancement of urbanization has released the consumer potential of the home appliance market. According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s urbanization rate was 52.6% in 2012. Currently, the urbanization rate in developed countries is generally 80%, and that in developing countries is generally 60%. Therefore, the urbanization process in China is still in a period of rapid increase, and the calculation shows that By 2020, the urban population in China will reach 890 million, the urban population ratio will reach 62%, and the home appliance market will have a market potential of 4.5 trillion yuan to be discovered. There will be 1 trillion yuan of market space in 2020.

Researchers believe that the continuous upgrading of the industrial structure has contributed to the steady growth of the home appliance market. In recent years, the consumer groups in China are undergoing tremendous changes. They have gradually become the main body of the Chinese consumer market in the 80s and 90s. Compared with the old generation of consumer groups, they are more willing to spend and have stronger purchasing power. They are pursuing new technologies. The willingness of new products is even more pronounced and strong, and the speed with which they are using products is significantly higher. According to China Yikang monitoring data, from January to May this year, the penetration rate of 3D and smart TVs in the color TV market has exceeded 60%, drum washing machine penetration rate exceeds 50%, inverter air conditioner approaches 65%, and market penetration of high-end computer type rice cookers The rate exceeds 70%, and the sales of European-style hoods account for more than 50%.