Market conditions Chaos legal person identified LED short-term industry prospects unknown

Since May 20th, the LED population has been affected by unclear market demand and low visibility in the peak quarter. The stock price of the group has been greatly revised. The upstream and downstream leading crystals (2448) and Yiguang (2393) have fallen 29%. 37%. The legal person believes that there is no chance to rebound in the decline of the tube, but the short-term industry prospects are unclear, and the rebound should be first.

In recent years, LED costs have dropped, technology has improved, and applications have become increasingly diversified. From small and medium-sized panel backlights, laptop backlights, headlights to streetlights, the potential business opportunities are quite large. In 2007, domestic LED manufacturers’ orders were overwhelming, and the industry’s repeated revenues were high. Coupled with the concept of energy conservation and carbon reduction, investors are optimistic about long-term potential. The upstream and downstream leading crystal power and billion light, the price-to-earnings ratio once reached 20 to 30 times, much higher than other electronic stocks. However, since the beginning of the year, the LED industry is expecting a prosperous quarter like a big drought. In the first quarter, China’s white-brand mobile phones were officially banned by mainland China, and white-brand mobile phones accounted for a high proportion of LED downstream factories, and revenue was dragged down. In the second quarter, small and medium-sized backlights were affected by the subprime mortgage storm, consumer electronics demand was sluggish, and prices fell rapidly. The two related applications have failed. The revenue growth rate of LEDs in the first five months was generally lower than expected. The growth rate in the past half of the year was less than 20%, and some even had negative growth.

Ye Weifu, the chairman of Everlight, rarely spoke to the industry in 2008. He only pointed out that "the second half of the year is still not clear." Li Bingjie, chairman of Jingdian, has only expressed his "prudent and optimistic" attitude on many occasions. The industry believes that in the short-term, the visibility of orders in July is not high. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to look at the low-cost computer shipments. Otherwise, the demand will be weak, and the industry will expand the production, which may cause a vicious price. LED will be frustrated this year. .

The legal person believes that the long-term industrial prospects of LED are good, but in TSMC (2330), AUO (2409), and Chimei Electric (3009), they are competing for two years, and for five years, the LED factory will face great competitive pressure. . In the short term, the outlook for LEDs in the second half of the year is unclear. In the second quarter, as the product mix has not improved, the gross profit margin is unlikely to improve. In the third quarter, orders are subject to low-cost computer faces. Before the global inflation and economic recession are resolved, consumption Sexual electronic products are hard to stay out of, LEDs are expected to rebound in the near future, investors can wait for opportunities to operate.

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