Yu Chunping, executive director of the China Energy Research Association, said on the 28th that distributed energy will become the mainstream of the “13th Five-Year†power development, with distributed photovoltaics and wind power as the main directions. Compared with the centralized disadvantages of the transmission channel being blocked and the abandonment of the wind and electricity, the distributed energy has the advantages of flexible energy layout and energy efficiency.
The recent policies have been significantly tilted towards distribution. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission officially announced the adjustment results of PV power plants and onshore wind power benchmarks, and generally lowered the benchmark price of new energy in 2017, but the distributed photovoltaic power subsidy standards are not adjusted. In addition, the "13th Five-Year Plan for Power Development", etc., also clearly proposed to promote the construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation. The brokerage research report believes that the average annual growth of distributed PV installed capacity is expected to reach 12GW in the next four years.
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Zhongtian Technology: The power business has achieved a large order, and it has been approved to increase the number of layouts.
On December 15, 2016, the company issued an announcement to win the tender for the second distribution network material and equipment agreement inventory of the State Grid Corporation in 2016. The power cables, wires, transformers and related ancillary products of the company and its holding subsidiaries totaled 4.42. 100 million share.
The transformation of rural power grids has accelerated, and the power business has continued to improve: According to the Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Implementing a New Round of Rural Power Grid Reconstruction and Upgrade Projects during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period, by 2020, China's rural areas will basically achieve stable and reliable power supply. The service coverage, power supply capacity and service level have been significantly improved, the rural power grid reliability rate reached 99.8%, and the comprehensive voltage pass rate reached 97.9%. In order to achieve this goal, the State Grid has begun to implement a new round of rural network transformation and upgrading projects, with a total investment of 522.2 billion yuan, and the power supply departments around the country have also accelerated the pace of rural network transformation. The company's power sector has a complete industrial chain of power transmission and distribution, including power cables, wires, transformers, fittings and related equipment. In 2015, the operating income of the power business was 2.377 billion yuan, the gross profit margin was 26.57% and the profitability continued to increase. The winning bid amount of 442 million yuan accounted for 18.59% of the 2015 revenue, which was used for the rural distribution network transformation project of the State Grid provinces, which is conducive to the company's higher share in the current rural power grid transformation and upgrading project.
The high level of optical communication and the strong performance of the main business: the main business of optical communication, the policy superimposed market demand, multiple positive factors work together, the industry continues to boom. China Mobile's 2016 annual general cable collection (first batch) bidding results show that the company's winning bid is 12.56%, compared with 6.63% last year, the share has increased significantly. With the gradual release of the company's preform capacity, it will reduce the company's cost and enhance profitability. The company's light bar capacity is currently reaching 800 tons. In 2017, the production capacity is expected to further expand, and the self-yield of light bars will be upgraded to meet the expanding optical cable market demand.
The company is approved to increase the number of lithium battery projects: the company will increase the approval, the issue price will be no less than 6.52 yuan / share, raising funds of 4.38 billion yuan for power lithium batteries, graphene, sea cable and seabed observation network The connection box research and development and industrialization projects complement the liquidity. Among them, 1.8 billion yuan was used for research and development and related industrialization of high-performance lithium battery products, accounting for 49.36% of the total investment of the project (excluding supplementary liquidity). The project has already started preparations. It is expected to be put into operation in November 2018. After completion, it will have an annual output of 120 million A? h Lithium-ion power lithium battery series products are widely used in new energy vehicles, robots and aerospace.
Investment suggestion: Optimistic about the continuous growth of the company's performance, the company's EPS for 2016/2017/2018 is forecast to be 0.57/0.72/0.94 yuan respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current share price is 18.07/14.30/10.96.
Longji shares: single crystal faucet, the leader in industrial development
The company's core competitive advantage: The company was founded in 2000, has always focused on the development, production and sales of monocrystalline silicon rods and silicon wafers. It has become the world's largest manufacturer of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic products. Since 2013, the company has gradually entered the field of photovoltaic power generation and solar cell and component manufacturing, accelerating the market share of monocrystalline silicon. Through continuous research and development efforts, the company has fully promoted the industrial application of research and development results, and continuously reduced the non-silicon cost of monocrystalline silicon chips, further enhancing the competitive advantage of product prices. The company gradually began to lay out overseas production lines. In February 2016, it acquired SunEdison's assets in Kuching, Malaysia, and became the first overseas production base of Longji. The efficient battery and component project in Andhra Pradesh, India, is also steadily advancing.
The industry continues to prosper and the global layout accelerates: In 2015, the global installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 50.60GW, an increase of 25.6%. China's new installed capacity in 2015 was 15.13 GW, a year-on-year increase of 42.7%. In 2016, the domestic new PV power generation construction index totaled 23.26GW, including 12.60GW for ordinary photovoltaic power station projects, 5.50GW for photovoltaic leading technology bases, and 5.16GW for the first batch of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects (including village-level photovoltaic power stations (including households). A total of 2.18GW, a centralized ground power station totaling 2.98GW). Thanks to the support of domestic and foreign PV policies, the photovoltaic industry has experienced rapid development since 2013, and major domestic manufacturers have gradually begun to deploy overseas markets to avoid the impact of trade protection measures.
The competition has intensified, and the industrial upgrading has become an inevitable trend: With the warming and rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in recent years, the inefficient and backward production capacity has been continuously released, which has led to intensified competition in the industry, thereby inhibiting the rapid expansion of high-efficiency production capacity. With the introduction of the “Leader Technology†base construction, the promotion of distributed photovoltaic power generation policy promotion, and the shrinking of the new installed capacity in the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†in the next four years, the turning point of the domestic PV industry has gradually approached, and the industrial upgrading has become The inevitable trend.
Earnings Forecast and Investment Proposal: The company's operating income for 2016-2018 is forecast to be 10.924 billion yuan, 15.63 billion yuan and 18.941 billion yuan respectively. The net profit is 1.303 billion yuan, 1.693 billion yuan and 1.805 billion yuan respectively. The shareholders' equity is 95.04. 100 million yuan, 10.52 billion yuan and 11.603 billion yuan, corresponding to earnings per share of 0.71 yuan, 0.82 yuan and 0.87 yuan, net assets per share were 4.76 yuan, 5.27 yuan and 5.81 yuan. Combined with the relative valuation results, the company's overall development trend, the company's stable industry position and sustainable development expectations, giving the company 21 times PE and 3.3 times PB, corresponding to 2017 stock price of 17.22 ~ 17.39 yuan.
Dongfang Risheng: The industry low in the third quarter has passed, and the demand for follow-up is improving.
In the first three quarters of 2016, the company achieved operating income of 4.176 billion yuan, an increase of 42.65% over the same period of the previous year, attributable to the parent company: net profit of 520 million yuan, an increase of 162.95% over the same period of the previous year, basic earnings per share of 0.8008 yuan / share, Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 162.90%.
Among them, in the third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 982 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.18%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 40.47 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.33%, basic earnings per share of 0.0623 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.33%.
The third quarter was an industry low, but the gross profit margin increased. In the first three quarters of 2016, the company achieved operating income of 4.176 billion yuan, an increase of 42.65% over the same period of the previous year, and a net profit of 520 million yuan, an increase of 162.95% over the same period of the previous year. After the 630 rush to install the company's product sales have slowed down, the third quarter achieved operating income of 982 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.18%, net profit of the mother to 40,477,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.33%, gross margin of 27.22%, an increase of 3.58 Percentage points. The company's performance growth was mainly due to the substantial increase in product sales and the increase in financial expenses-exchange gains and losses. In addition, the company's investment in Shanghai Chaori (Luoyang) Solar Energy Co., Ltd.'s restructuring plan also contributed some of the increase in performance.
The progress of power station construction and development in the future is accelerating and worth looking forward to The company's strategy is to build and operate 1GW photovoltaic power plants in 2014-2016. The company's wholly-owned company has been promoted to Hong Kong and Risheng Power, focusing on the development, construction and operation of power stations at home and abroad. It has formed the development, construction and operation of downstream photovoltaic power plants in parallel at home and abroad. In 2016, the company plans to raise non-public offering shares to invest no more than 3.2 billion yuan to invest in the construction of photovoltaic power station projects. The current issuance plan has been approved by the CSRC.
Solar cells, components, and EVA provide performance support. The annual production capacity of the company's components is 2200MW, and the annual production capacity of the battery is 1200MW. The company's battery and module research and development results are remarkable. The conventional PV 1650*992 components can sell the highest power to break through 280W, the conversion efficiency of polycrystalline cells exceeds 19.00%, and the component conversion efficiency breaks through 17.00. %. The company's subsidiary, Swick, specializes in the research, development, production and sales of new photovoltaic materials. The current annual production capacity reaches 18GW. The company's products have been certified by TUV, VDE, CQC, JET and SGS.
Earnings forecast and rating: It is estimated that the company's operating income in 2016, 2017 and 2018 will be 7.079 billion yuan, 8.439 billion yuan and 9.40 billion yuan respectively. The net profit of the mothers is 655 million yuan, 746 million yuan and 802 million yuan respectively. The EPS is 0.97, 1.11, and 1.19 yuan respectively, and the PEs corresponding to the closing price of November 16, 2016 (16.27 yuan) are 17, 15, and 14 times respectively.
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