According to the survey, the average semiconductor inventory days in the fourth quarter of 2011 increased by 3.4% from 81.3 days in the previous quarter to 84.1 days, a record high since the first quarter of 2001. However, it is expected that demand will increase in the first quarter of 2012, which will reduce inventory days to 83.7 days.
Sharon Stiefel, an iSuppli semiconductor analyst, pointed out that global semiconductor revenue fell 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2011, mainly due to shrinking customer orders. In addition, semiconductor suppliers are struggling to adjust their capacity utilization to meet the demand decline, and also to increase inventory days.
According to Stiefel, semiconductor suppliers expect demand to pick up in the first quarter. He said that the semiconductor order shipping ratio (BB value) is already close to 1, and the global economic indicators also show that the economy will be more stable in the future. All these factors make semiconductor suppliers more optimistic and believe that the industrial environment is about to improve.
Many semiconductor suppliers stated on the conference call that the market conditions had bottomed out, mainly due to the improvement in the status of orders received in January, and that customers had apparently ended their actions to correct inventory. Stiefel pointed out that if the semiconductor demand rises higher than expected, then the excess inventory will instead become the advantage of the industry in late 2012.
The International Semiconductor Equipment Materials Association (SEMI) announced on February 23 that in January 2012, the book-to-bill ratio of semiconductor equipment manufacturers in North America was estimated to be 0.95, which was the fourth consecutive monthly increase. It was a new high since May 2011 (0.97) but it was also the lowest in the 16th consecutive month. SEMI's preliminary estimate shows that in January, North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers received a global average of US$1.1797 billion in three-month moving orders, a jump of 7.0% over the December 2011 revised value (1.1029 billion US dollars). The fourth consecutive monthly increase.
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