Japan's semiconductors may return to dominance after the disaster

The earthquake in Japan in March last year caused the Japanese semiconductor industry to be paralyzed. It is believed that the Japanese semiconductor industry will be falling day by day and will no longer have a dominant position on the world stage. This is also true of Japan’s earthquake. The industrial chain has been severely damaged. In addition to the previous backlog of inventory, everything has to be abandoned. One year has passed and the current situation is that the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan is still a wasteland around, but the semiconductor industry has not been shocked and tumbled as originally expected. According to the observation of IHS iSuppli, Japan’s dominant position in the semiconductor industry has been shaken many years before the earthquake.

Unfortunately, Japanese semiconductor manufacturers discovered a well-known but never publicly acknowledged problem after the disaster: Japan no longer dominates semiconductor device manufacturing. With the impact of strong earthquakes, the late recovery of the Japanese semiconductor industry finally emerged as the real issue.

Before 2011, the global semiconductor manufacturing industry was mainly concentrated in Japan. Japan-based suppliers accounted for about 27% of global semiconductor revenue in 2003. However, in 2011, it has dropped to 19%, but Japan is still an important role in the global supply chain - even after the strong earthquake, the industry is generally expected to have a shortage. However, the speculated supply chain shortage has not occurred because excess inventory has been accumulated in the electronics industry chain. The suspension of some manufacturing industries in Japan, assisted by a more effective inventory management measure, helped avoid a possible major shortage.

The entire industry has also begun to understand that it is quite dangerous to completely concentrate an industry in an area. In this regard, the issue of geographical areas is as important as economic issues. The scale of the catastrophes caused by the strong earthquakes and tsunami that occurred in Japan last year is enough to completely destroy any industries that are concentrated in inappropriate areas. This point we can see from the floods in Thailand and its impact on the hard disk industry.

China’s dominant position in the manufacturing industry will eventually alert the global economy. The rise and fall of global stock markets depends on the Chinese economic outlook. At the same time, any fluctuations in China's currency will bring shocks to the stock market. Now, the whole world has also begun to worry about the global supply of rare earth elements (REE) and China's issue of mineral control.

Japan's semiconductor plant facilities only need to be rebuilt and updated so that the electronic supply chain can return to the pre-2011 intensive situation. Japan and the electronics industry should invest in rebuilding the semiconductor industry in Japan while focusing on the next generation of technology development. According to IHS iSuppli Corporation:

As one of the world's major semiconductor manufacturing regions, Japan currently has the fewest 300mm advanced fabs and the most mature 6-inch fabs. Manufacturers in Japan are very resistant to the trend of shutting down advanced plant facilities, preferring to outsource manufacturing or rebuild manufacturing facilities for existing advanced facilities. Formerly one of the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing companies in the world, today's Japanese semiconductor manufacturing operations are relatively old for the rest of the world.

Rebuilding the Japanese semiconductor industry does not mean one-on-one exchanges, or the output of Japanese fabs returning to 2011 levels. Investment should be carefully planned and balanced. Perhaps the semiconductor industry can borrow some of the same technology, such as display technology. LCDs are very similar to semiconductors. More ideally, there are not many OLED factories in the world. In addition to semiconductor fabs, Japan also has advantages in chip manufacturing and testing equipment. OLEDs require the use of deposition equipment, glass, circuitry, and equipment for cutting, bonding, and testing. Therefore, we can find a new opportunity to escape the existing display industry infrastructure.

When the world's major chip manufacturing companies move to the next 28nm manufacturing, Japan is facing the fact that there is no domestic company currently capable of adopting this advanced technology node for mass production. History tells us that success is cumulative. Without a strong technology platform that can gain experience and progress, there is little chance that Japan will succeed in achieving 28 nm production.

When Japan once again demonstrated to the world that they were able to achieve any set goals, it also surpassed the level of recovery from damage and aimed at higher goals. This is a country that can redefine the automotive industry and become a leader in consumer electronics and chip manufacturing. It can accept ruthless destruction, but it will not be knocked down.

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