I thought this New Deal would attract a lot of applause, but in fact the industry reacted differently to this, and there was no agreement. It remains to be seen how much it can promote the photovoltaic industry, and people in the industry pay more attention to the implementation of follow-up supporting policies.
Stimulated by the frequent New Deal in photovoltaics and the settlement of Sino-European photovoltaic trade disputes, the photovoltaic industry has recently shown signs of recovery, but many companies are still facing difficulties in financing, many problems have not yet been broken, and the winter seems to continue.
Wuxi Suntech, which was the benchmark of China's photovoltaic industry in the past, is currently busy with bankruptcy and reorganization. A few days ago, some insiders revealed that Jiangsu Province will bear 7 billion yuan of debt for Suntech in Wuxi. Although it is only a rumor, it also reflects the current dilemma and helplessness faced by domestic photovoltaic companies from the one side-physical and mental exhaustion still needs The government is back.
Crisis forced the New Deal frequently
Overcapacity on the one hand and trade disputes on the other. The photovoltaic industry that experienced early mania in China has encountered unprecedented dilemmas in recent years. The days of making money with eyes closed are gone, and “domestic and foreign difficulties†once became a vivid portrayal of the photovoltaic industry.
In order to save this strategic emerging industry from fire and water, the relevant state departments have spared no effort. At the end of July this year, under the mediation of the highest political leadership, after a year of marathon-style games, the Sino-European photovoltaic trade dispute was basically resolved. More than 90 major export enterprises in Europe that abide by price commitments were not subject to heavy taxes, and shared The 7 GW quota (components) escaped the disaster, and China's photovoltaic industry also saved the main European market.
When the external problems are basically resolved, in order to break the passive pattern of the past, the relevant parties of the country, especially the government departments, have frequently issued various policies in hopes of opening the domestic market as soon as possible, standardizing the entire industrial order, and guiding enterprises to the road of healthy development.
After the State Council issued the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development" last year and State Grid issued the "Opinions on Doing a Good Job in Distributed Grid Connection Services (Interim)"; on July 15 this year, the General Office of the State Council introduced "Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry."
In response to this "Opinion", the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Relevant Issues Concerning Implementation of Electricity Subsidy Policy for Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" on July 31.
Immediately afterwards, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on the Role of Price Leverage to Promote the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry."
The notice made it clear that the photovoltaic power station shall implement the benchmark on-grid electricity price policy by region. According to the conditions of solar energy resources and construction costs in various places, the country is divided into three types of resource areas, and the electricity price standards of 0.9 yuan, 0.95 yuan, and 1 yuan per kWh are implemented respectively. For distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, the policy of electricity price subsidies according to the amount of electricity generated is implemented, and the electricity price subsidy standard is 0.42 yuan per kilowatt hour.
The notice pointed out that the regional benchmark on-grid tariff policy applies to photovoltaic power plant projects that were filed (approved) after September 1 this year and filed (approved) before September 1 but were put into operation on and after January 1, 2014. In principle, the implementation period of benchmark on-grid electricity prices and electricity price subsidy standards is 20 years in principle.
The intensive introduction of policies can be described as dazzling, and the speed and content even exceed the expectations of people inside and outside the industry.
New Deal's "Efficacy" to be tested
However, what is surprising is that the industry has different views on the above-mentioned New Deal.
"This policy will actually suppress investors' enthusiasm for photovoltaic power plants in the short term." China Junye Solar Technology Holdings Co., Ltd. Han Junli said very calmly to Tencent Finance on the phone.
Han Junli has been traveling between Beijing and Qinghai and other northwestern provinces recently, mainly engaged in photovoltaic power station EPC business. In the eyes of this old man in the photovoltaic industry, the recent New Deal seems unable to evoke his excitement.
He told Tencent Finance that most of the non-tendered solar photovoltaic power plant projects currently implement the on-grid electricity price of 1 yuan / kWh, and according to the New Deal, the electricity price of the first and second resource areas has dropped to 0.9 yuan and 0.95 yuan per kWh. As the project's rate of return will decline, the investment recovery period of photovoltaic power plants in resource-rich areas such as Qinghai will increase from 8 years to about 10 years, increasing financial costs. "
For distributed power generation projects, the intent behind the 0.42 yuan per kilowatt-hour subsidy determined by the New Deal is to encourage spontaneous self-use. "If the excess is connected to the grid, the benchmark on-grid electricity price of the local coal-fired unit must be implemented. Han Junli pointed out that some units and individuals must consider their own power consumption capacity when launching a distributed power generation project, and the installed photovoltaic capacity must match the energy consumption. At present, distributed photovoltaic power generation will not develop on a large scale in the short term, and "small apartment" installations of 10 to 20 kilowatts will become mainstream.
Jing Run Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. Wang Runchuan agreed with this. He believes that the new deal will pay more attention to the long-term, and it may induce a "rush to install" ground power stations in the short term, but the premise is that the relevant companies must get roads and sufficient funds.
"In the past, some companies that received the road signs were waiting for component prices to decline, and they refused to start construction. Now, the policy is forcing them to rush to build and put into operation before January 1 next year to avoid the risks caused by the reduction in feed-in electricity prices. Wang Runchuan revealed that the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant's more than 100 MW ground power station project has recently been constructed. Subsequent projects from other companies will start, but the total installed capacity will not exceed 1 GW.
In fact, the industry is currently paying more attention to the implementation of a series of supporting policies, including the financial loan service policy for individual development of distributed photovoltaics, the reduction of power plant operation value-added tax by half, and the grid access process guidelines.
"Now banks still have few loans to photovoltaic companies, and financing is still difficult." Han Junli told Tencent Finance that many developers of photovoltaic power station projects are currently "on hand" and use project contractors as financing platforms. The contractor made advances to build the project first, and then the developer found money through various channels to repay the project construction costs.
In addition, as far as distributed projects are concerned, there is still some resistance in project declaration and approval, especially in grid connection, and the internal mechanisms and interests of power grid companies need to be coordinated and rationalized. Therefore, only the implementation of supporting policies such as finance, taxation and grid integration can really stimulate the enthusiasm of investors, and most of them are still waiting to see.
Contrary to the above cautious views, Shen Fuxin, secretary general of the Zhejiang Solar Energy Industry Association, believes that the introduction of the New Deal is itself a major benefit. First of all, the "classified pricing" of photovoltaic power plants is scientific and reasonable. Secondly, the policy implementation period is determined to be 20 years, which is conducive to enterprises to ensure revenue. In addition, the distributed subsidy standard of 0.42 yuan per kWh can generally guarantee developers to obtain a stable yield of at least 8%.
Warm but cold winter will continue
The settlement of China-EU trade disputes and the intensive introduction of the New Deal still bring a hint of warmth to the photovoltaic industry, but it is still unknown when the cold winter will pass and when the spring will come.
Zhejiang is a major domestic photovoltaic manufacturing province, mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 35% of the total domestic photovoltaic production capacity, and the number of enterprises is about one-third of the country. Shen Fuxin introduced to Tencent Finance that, due to various factors, especially policy-driven, Zhejiang photovoltaic industry has bottomed out.
According to the data provided by him, in the first half of this year, the total sales of photovoltaic products in Zhejiang was 23 billion, and the profit reached 300 million, which was better than the same period last year. Industry performance in the second half of the year is expected to exceed that of the first half. The total output value of the entire industry last year was 48 billion yuan, and the accumulated loss was as high as 5 billion yuan.
From the enterprise level, except for Zhejiang Hengji Photovoltaic which declared bankruptcy and ceased production in June, there has not been a large-scale collapse of photovoltaic companies.
Zhejiang PV is just a microcosm. Shen Fuxin believes that as far as the entire domestic photovoltaic industry is concerned, there is little room for continuing the downward trend, and the rising period may have come. Han Junli expressed a similar view: "As road approvals increase, domestic consumption capacity increases, and exports to Europe break the ice, photovoltaic companies have a better life than before." Wang Runchuan also said, "The industry is slowly picking up last year The third and fourth quarters should be the bottom of the industry, and now corporate profits have rebounded. "
The performance of some leading companies in the industry seems to support the above view. Recently, the photovoltaic companies listed in the United States have successively announced the second quarter financial report. The financial report shows that the operation of various photovoltaic enterprises has stabilized and improved, the loss has narrowed significantly year-on-year, and JinkoSolar has achieved its first profit since the third quarter of 2011. At the same time, shipments of many companies have increased significantly. Trina Solar and Artus Solar both expect to turn losses into profit in the fourth quarter.
On September 3, several of the main stocks were eye-catching. Among them, Hanwha New Energy surged 15.86%, Yuhui Sunshine surged 14.88%, Yingli New Energy closed up 9.07%, Trina Solar closed up 8.95%, the highest since February 21, 2012.
Wang Runchuan pointed out to Tencent Finance that the outbreak of stocks in this round was mainly because the stock price was severely undervalued before, but now it is the process of market revaluation. He believes that the market value of the US and Chinese stocks should be kept at 800 to 900 million US dollars to be reasonable.
Although the stock market is "fluttering", some analysts also said that the winter of the photovoltaic industry is clearly not over. Many companies are still "half alive" or "dead but not down". The overall loss pattern is difficult to change in a short time. Some enterprises have accounts receivable as high as 5-7 billion yuan, which exposes potentially significant risks.
As the "live specimen" of the ups and downs of China's photovoltaic industry, the fate of Wuxi Suntech has become the focus of attention from all walks of life in recent times. A few days ago, an anonymous person revealed to Tencent Finance that Jiangsu Province will spend 7 billion yuan to fill the holes in Wuxi Shangde's "wipe ass". If this news is true, it means that the debt burden of Suntech ’s 10.7 billion yuan will only be 3 billion at a time. This undoubtedly cleared the obstacles for its reorganization, especially the introduction of strategic investors.
However, it is still unclear who will control Wuxi Suntech. The views of the above-mentioned industry insiders seem to be more consistent, that is, the Jiangsu and Wuxi municipal governments will not allow control to fall, it is likely that the local government will be backed by Wuxi Guolian or other local enterprises, controlled by a private company in the photovoltaic industry such as Yingli Enterprises participate in shares and retain the Suntech brand and local business cards. "Obviously, the Wuxi municipal government now does not want Suntech to dump or pay." Shen Fuxin emphasized.
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