Introduction: The American technology blog Business Insider today published an article entitled "Tesla Has Had A Major Impact On The Global Battery Industry", saying that Tesla's current demand for lithium batteries It's huge. With the launch of new electric vehicles, this demand will grow rapidly. This means that global lithium battery production will double in the next few years.
The following is the full text of the article:
Tesla is developing rapidly, the company's 14,000 Model S all-electric luxury cars have been on the road, and the company's stock price has also reached new highs. If the planned production target can be achieved, that is, the production of 21,000 vehicles this year and the production of 40,000 vehicles in 2015, then the company's demand for lithium batteries will be increasing.
In recent years, Tesla's huge demand for batteries has raised the global battery production level. When Model S is put into production for a year, Tesla is likely to consume the "18650" lithium battery produced by the entire industry. However, ensuring sufficient battery supply in a timely manner is essential for Tesla to expand automobile production and achieve sustained growth.
Scale becomes key
Starting from the era of Henry Ford, a key to the automotive industry is scale. Each car contains thousands of parts, and each part requires a separate production line. Eventually, a huge factory will assemble these parts and assemble them into the final car. If you can produce thousands of cars every day, then you will find the power and logistics of industry to be incredible.
For Tesla, which is still small, the rapid growth of Model S sales has put pressure on traditional auto parts suppliers. Tesla CEO Elon Musk (Elon Musk) pointed out that some suppliers previously believed that Model S sales will not exceed 3,000 in the entire life cycle, and based on this expectation to supply. But in fact, 3000 cars are just the Model S production in 6 weeks.
Previously, the lithium battery industry rarely intersects with automobiles, and the rise of Tesla has had an important impact on this industry.
Large capacity battery
Nissan Lingfeng is the best-selling electric car in history. From December 2010 to mid-July 2013, Nissan sold more than 71,000 vehicles around the world. This car is equipped with a 24 kWh lithium battery, so in the 32-month production process, Nissan consumed a total of 1.7 million kWh lithium batteries.
As a comparison, Tesla will sell 21,000 Model S this year. Based on user data from the Tesla Club, less than 30% of Tesla car buyers have chosen an entry-level 60 kWh battery. Therefore, we can calculate that in 12 months of production time, Tesla will consume 1.6 million kWh of lithium batteries.
In other words, the battery consumed by Tesla in one year is almost equivalent to the total consumption of Nissan in 3 years. This reflects a basic fact: Tesla cars use batteries that have a larger capacity than Nissan LeFont and any other electric car. Therefore, in the next few years, as the output of Tesla cars increases, the company's impact on the battery industry will also become greater.
Tesla is the only car manufacturer that uses a large capacity of 18650 lithium battery with a small capacity on a large scale. Nissan, General Motors (35.85, 1.71, 5.01%) and BMW and other manufacturers usually use larger lithium batteries. Such batteries The single capacity is 10 times that of 18650 lithium battery. In addition, Tesla also assembles battery packs for other automobile manufacturers such as Toyota and Daimler on a small scale. These manufacturers also use 18650 lithium batteries.
Heavyweight
This situation has changed the consumer battery industry. Panasonic (7.24, 0.00, 0.00%) is currently Tesla's main battery supplier. In the second quarter of 2012, the company lost 2 billion yen (about 20 million U.S. dollars), compared with a profit of 4 billion yen in the most recent quarter. This is mainly due to the strong demand of Model S for lithium batteries. Tesla's rapidly increasing sales force Panasonic to expand production capacity. Panasonic re-opened the previously idle factory, and at the same time began to build a new production line.
In addition, Tesla will also sign production agreements with Samsung SDI and other important battery manufacturers to ensure sufficient battery supply in the future.
Behind the hard work of the battery industry, some data of the Model S battery system is also interesting. Each 85-kWh battery pack of Tesla contains more than 7000 automotive-grade batteries, which are ordinary 18650 cylindrical lithium batteries. At present, the entire industry can produce about 660 million cylindrical batteries each year, and 18650 lithium batteries are the most popular type.
As of the end of June, Panasonic had shipped 100 million batteries to Tesla, while Model S's production capacity is still increasing. Tesla currently plans to produce 40,000 electric vehicles annually by the end of 2014.
40% of global production capacity
If Tesla achieves this goal, and the 85 kWh battery pack proves to be as popular as the United States in foreign markets, then by next year, a Model S model will consume nearly 40% of the global cylindrical battery capacity. %.
This short-term production increase in the Model S plan is far from over. By the beginning of 2015, Tesla is expected to start production of Model X models, which will increase the company's car production by another 20,000 units or more.
Industry insiders predict that in the next few years, global battery production capacity will need to increase by 2 to 3 times to meet the demand for lithium batteries from a Tesla company. As long as the potential market of Model S and Model X is analyzed, the reason behind this expectation is obvious.
Musk has repeatedly stated that the North American market accounts for about one-third of the global luxury car market. If Tesla can sell 20,000 vehicles in North America a year, the global market demand for Model S should be close to 60,000 vehicles per year. Considering the impact of the Model X that began selling in 2015, it can be found that by 2017 Tesla will sell up to 100,000 cars per year. This means that Tesla needs 640 million batteries per year, and global battery capacity will need to double in the next few years.
Such results cannot be achieved within 6 months. Nissan spent three years building a lithium battery plant in Smyrna, Tennessee, USA. Nissan invested in June 2009, but the plant was not put into production until the end of 2012. Even if the final sales of Model S and Model X are lower than expected, Tesla needs to ensure battery production as soon as possible.
The third generation Tesla
So far, the Model S has achieved brilliant success, with sales exceeding competitors in the luxury car market. However, regardless of the sales of Model S and Model X, Tesla will begin to develop a new generation of electric vehicles to compete directly with the BMW 3 Series and Mercedes-Benz C-Class cars.
According to the latest news, Tesla's third-generation electric car will begin production at the end of 2016, and there are still three years left until now. The model of this car may be Model E. This will be a mid-level sedan, which is 20% smaller than the Model S. The battery has a mileage of at least 200 miles (about 321.9 kilometers), and the entry price is expected to be about $ 35,000.
Assuming that each car needs 4,000 batteries, then for every 165,000 cars produced, Tesla needs the battery capacity equivalent to the current global capacity. The company's Fremont, California, plant can produce 500,000 cars annually, and Tesla is also considering building plants in Europe and Asia.
If the annual output of the third-generation car exceeds 100,000 units, then the number of batteries required will reach billions, exceeding the current total capacity of the entire industry.
External procurement or internal production?
This also explains why Musk believes that Tesla needs to build a large battery factory to meet the company's future battery needs. However, it is unclear whether Tesla will rely on the current battery industry to achieve this goal, or to produce independently, including the acquisition of current battery manufacturers.
At present, it is clear that Tesla has had an important impact on the global battery industry. In the past 2/3 of 2013, Tesla has begun to exert market influence and put the most important battery manufacturers on its own track.
As Tesla begins to produce the next generation of cars, the company may have planned a massive expansion of the global battery industry, regardless of future consumer electronics industry demand. If Tesla's sales data can be maintained, such expansion means that global battery capacity will double or even quadruple in the next three to five years. And to achieve such an achievement will also make Henry Ford admired.
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